New State Ratings: AA(Red) and AA(Blue)?
Dr. Philip Fischer shares his thesis that among other things, elections are economic statements. This presidential election seems to be telling us that the states are bifurcating. The data supports this and bond ratings should reflect it directly.
A Nation of Hoarders Passes the Tipping Point – Pay Attention to the States
States built up rainy day funds, which were clearly inadequate. Unless the Congress moves to help them, they will be cutting programs and rainy day funds in the future will dramatically expand as the states hoard money to protect their current level of expenditures.
The Urban Exodus – Yes they will come back. No they won’t.
Dr. Philip Fischer shares his thesis that risk analysis we use now is not sufficiently sensitive to technological development. The risk to the cities from Covid-19 depopulation is actually much greater than is generally assumed.
Unemployment Messages to the Cities
Dr. Philip Fischer provides an assessment of current unemployment, saying that the focus of the unemployment problem is going to be the city’s, which are facing deep population problems.
Understanding the MMT Curve
Dr. Philip Fischer provides a way to explain the current steepening of the triple AAA GO curve. He contends that it reflects expected inflationary pressures from large treasury deficits.
Big Muni Spreads Don’t Mean Big Defaults
Dr. Philip Fischer provides a novel approach to muni bond spread analysis and concludes that widening spreads do not necessarily imply increased expected default rates.
A Quick Take on State Finances - Waiting for Godot
Dr. Philip Fischer gives a quick take on where we are headed in state and local finances. No matter how you cut it, it’s a long slog for the states.
Expert Testimony to House Ways and Means Committee Hearing on Infrastructure
Dr. Philip Fischer was one of the expert witnesses providing testimony at the House Ways and Means Committee Hearing, “Paving the Way for Funding and Financing Infrastructure Investments,” which occurred on Wednesday, January 29, 2020
Symmetry 2020 and its Risks: Perspectives on the Year Ahead
Welcome to Symmetry in 2020 and its Risks, a special audio presentation from eBooleant Consulting. Dr. Philip Fischer, former head of fixed income and municipal bond strategy for Bank of America, looks beyond the Middle East and finds 2020 to be challenging and uncertain.
Bond Market Lessons from Borneo
Dr. Philip Fischer pays an intimate visit to the markets of the Borneo jungle. In this piece, I summarize the experience of the primitive and link by analogy to our own market concepts. The article relates a trip, its geography, and its juxtaposition with our culture.
